Making the Grade

Marijuana Legality by State: Projected Market Sizes in 2024

We’re not here to dwell on the past. We’re here to look to the future.

So this week we’re looking for the 10 largest American marijuana markets of 2024.

And the data shows we’re about to see a major continental shift.

By that I mean none of the top five cannabis markets in the U.S. are east of the Mississippi River right now.

But that’ll soon change…

Chart - Top 10 States for Cannabis by 2024

First, this is one of those situations where size does matter…

So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the most populous state in the country is currently and will continue to be the largest cannabis market five years from now.

California’s legal weed market is projected to be worth more than $7.3 billion by 2024.

That’s more than the next four states combined!

And this is why so many multistate operators (MSOs) have made considerable wagers on the state.

Cresco Labs (OTC: CRLBF) is betting California will be a big win. The MSO acquired Origin House for $825 million in April. It believes the deal will finally close in the fourth quarter of this year.

Meanwhile, MedMen Enterprises (OTC: MMNFF) owns plenty of prime real estate in the Golden State. It has 14 dispensaries in operation in California, with three more planned.

But both companies have to defend their stakes against Acreage Holdings (OTC: ACRGF), Curaleaf Holdings (OTC: CURLF), DionyMed Brands (OTC: DYMEF), Green Thumb Industries (OTC: GTBIF), and Harvest Health & Recreation (OTC: HRVSF).

The second-largest market by 2024 is set to be Colorado. This is an interesting one.

There are nearly 600 dispensaries in the state. And it’s on track to earn more than $2 billion in annual cannabis revenue within five years.

Now, consumption lounges have been approved in Colorado. And the state recently passed a law allowing publicly traded companies to own dispensary licenses.

But no company is making greater waves than Medicine Man Technologies (OTC: MDCL). It’s been on a Colorado-based acquisition tear, including gobbling up one of the state’s largest and best known edibles producers and extractors, Dabble Extracts.

Third on our state list is Florida, with projected 2024 statewide pot sales of $1.9 billion. The competition is heating up to snag a slice of this sunny market.

Trulieve Cannabis (OTC: TCNNF) has 29 dispensaries in operation in Florida.

Liberty Health Sciences (OTC: LHSIF) is also building a stronghold there.

Meanwhile, iAnthus Capital Holdings (OTC: ITHUF) currently has three new Florida dispensaries opening. And it’s planning to continue to expand its footprint into 2020.

Additionally, MedMen is looking to make a splash with 35 retail licenses in Florida.

Then there’s the ever-present Acreage Holdings, as well as Cansortium (OTC: CNTMF), Columbia Care (OTC: COLXF), Curaleaf, Green Thumb Industries, and Harvest Health & Recreation. Not to mention a growing field of competitors.

New York’s legal cannabis market is projected to be worth $1.66 billion in the next five years.

The MSOs building ramparts in the Empire State aren’t very surprising…

Acreage Holdings, Columbia Care, Cresco Labs, Curaleaf, Green Thumb Industries, iAnthus and Vireo Health (OTC: VREOF) have established positions in the state. Vireo is also one of only two vertically integrated MSOs coming out of Minnesota.

Of course, MedMen has the rights to eight dispensaries and two cultivation sites in the state.

Next, Michigan is forecast to be a nearly $1.5 billion market by 2024.

Followed by Illinois, where MedMen-acquired company PharmaCann has 10 dispensaries. The PharmaCann purchase gave MedMen a foothold in Maryland, Massachusetts, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia to boot.

Plus, earlier this year, Harvest Health & Recreation acquired Verano, one of the largest cannabis companies in Illinois, for $850 million. And Harvest Health is headquartered in Tempe, which is great for exposure to the $1.47 billion Arizona market.

The forecasts are encouraging. By 2030, the legal marijuana market in the U.S. will be worth roughly $80 billion.

Until then, we can see a major transition underway.

A lot of the same company names are weaving their way across the country. They’ve raised their flags in each state. And they don’t want to be left behind by the competition.

Currently, no U.S. cannabis market east of the Mississippi is in our top five.

Though, by 2024, there should be three – Florida, New York and Michigan. And five of the top 10 largest U.S. markets should be east of the Big Muddy by then as well.

That means investors looking to capture the most growth need to make sure they have both West and East coast exposure.

Thankfully, that’s easy enough to do with the tentacle-like approach of American MSOs.

Here’s to high returns,

Matthew